A Russian in Poland

Vladimir Putin arrives at Warsaw airport and hands his passport to the immigration officer.

Officer: "Nationality?"
Putin: "Russian."
Officer: "Occupation?"
Putin: (smiles) "Not this time, just a short business trip."

h/t Foreign Policy magazine.

Primer on North Korea

Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Fact Sheet

• Supreme Leader: Kim Jong Un
• Capital: Pyongyang
• Population: 24.9mn (2013E)
• GDP: US$25 bn (2015E)
• GDP/Capita: US$1,000
• Main industries: Mining & industrial (34%), services (31%), agri (22%)
• Trade partners: China, Russia

Note:  South Korea GDP: US$1.3trn (2015)

History

918-1910 AD: Unitary Dynasties (Korean Empire) included parts of Inner Mongolia. Tributary system with Chinese empire

• 1868: Meiji Restoration in Japan
• 1894-1895: Qing-Japan War over influence in Korean peninsula

1910-1945: Japanese occupation of Korean peninsula

• 1939-1945: WW2

1945-1948: Post-WW2 Division of Korean peninsula (Soviet occupies North, US in the South)
1948: Foundation of DPRK; Kim Il-Sung appointed as Chairman
1950-1953: Korean War:

• Jun 1950: NK (supported by Soviet and China) invasion of SK.  US forces intervened to defend the SK.
• July 1953: Armistice; border restored with DMZ

Post-War:

• 1955-mid 1970s: Vietnam War
• 1970s: China sought to reset relations with US, re-evaluates NK relations
• 1991: Soviet Union dissolved; aid to NK stopped immediately
• 1992: Kim Jong Il
• 2011: Kim Jong Un

Korean War (1950-53)

The USAF dropped more bombs in North Korea than the entire WW2 Pacific Theater, including tens of thousands of tons of napalm.  Bombing campaigns targeted urban areas, key infrastructure and agricultural farmland.

Pyongyang -- Before and After the War

“Over the three years, we killed off maybe 20 percent of the population [of North Korea]”
- USAF Gen. Curtis LeMay (1984)

Modern-Day Military and Weapons Program

Size of Military (Pentagon estimates):

• 1mn soldiers + 3mn military reserves
• Short-range and intermediate ballistic missiles (200-2,000 miles); 400+ launchers (incl mobile)
• Small arsenal of nuclear weapons (potentially 10-15)
• No ICBM yet (+3,000 miles; nuclear payload)

Strategic Goals:

• Leadership’s existential crisis; needs to demonstrate winnable war strategy; prevents coups and foreign interference
• Propaganda and national pride
• Industrial development

Source of Funding:

• China (+75% of NK trade)
• Overseas labor/remittances (China and Russia)
• Weapons sales (several African countries, Iran?)
• Drugs (methamphetamine)
• Cyber crimes

THAAD Missile Defense System

Infographic - Lockheed Martin

South Korean objections:

• Limited range of interceptors (~150km) cannot even protect all of SK
• Missile defense not worth the massive hit in relations with China and Russia
• National sovereignty undermined by the rapid and massive increase of US presence
• “South Korea will pay $1bn [for THAAD]” –Donald Trump

Russian objections:

• “Deployment of anti-missile system poses a threat to the existing military balance in the region” -Russian FM

Chinese objections:

• Geopolitics: China remains an ally and major trading partner of NK
• Advanced radar system has a range of >1,000km, penetrating into Chinese airspace

Circular / Recursive?

Huh?!??