Saturday, November 24, 2018

How to survive Thanksgiving

History lessons:



Tips for surviving Thanksgiving weekend:




Friday, November 23, 2018

Liberal Heroines of the Trump world

@SallyQYates :  country over party


Christine Blasey-Ford (obv)


@LucyWins2018 :  gun control advocate


@AJDelgado13 :  fighting conservative hypocrisy


One of these women should run for 2020.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Amazon decision draws bipartisan condemnation

The wise pundit has weighed in

After a lengthy sweepstakes-like process, Amazon ended its race for HQ2, claiming its decisions weren’t swayed by the more than $3 billion in tax breaks and other sweeteners offered by New York and Virginia — because the deals were “relatively modest” compared to what else was put on the table.   “If you look at some of the proposals that were put forward by cities that released them publicly, you can find out very quickly that incentives did not drive this process for us,” Jay Carney of Amazon said Tuesday on CNBC. Those areas include Montgomery County in Maryland, which offered $8.5 billion, and Newark, New Jersey’s proposal of $7 billion.

The HQ2 decision has been slammed by politicos and pundits from both sides.  From NY Post:
Fox News host Tucker Carlson asked on his most recent show:  “Jeff Bezos, who is the world’s richest man, will receive more than $2 billion in subsidies from you, the taxpayer,” he said.  “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had this to say: ‘Amazon is a billion-dollar company. The idea it will receive hundreds of millions of dollars in tax rates at a time when a subway is crumbling in our communities need more investment, not less, is extremely concerning to residents here,’” Carlson continued.  “I hate to admit it, but Ocasio-Cortez has a very good point. It’s hard to argue with the internal logic, the richest man in the world [getting] taxpayer subsidies. How does that work?” the conservative firebrand added, referring to Amazon chief Jeff Bezos, who has a net worth that tops $150 billion, making him the richest man in America.

Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, also rebuked the massive tax breaks in a piece in the National Review and criticized fellow conservatives, some of whom mocked the 29-year-old Ocasio-Cortez for opposing the deal.  “I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Ocasio-Cortez is mostly correct on this matter, and her conservative critics are wrong. Handouts like this to Amazon and other prominent companies are appalling in their cronyism, pure and simple,” she wrote. [...]  She argued that Amazon was seeking locations with skilled workforces and quality educational options — and that tax breaks were largely an afterthought to those factors.  “In other words, Amazon would have likely made the same decision with or without subsidies. It also explains why no amount of subsidies can drag a company to a place that isn’t economically vibrant or that is in the middle of nowhere,” de Rugy wrote.  “But face it: Amazon was never going to move to, say, Opelika, Ala., or Marfa, Texas, no matter how gargantuan the promised tax breaks there.”

Bre Payton, a writer for the conservative website The Federalist, also slammed the deal.
“The democratic socialist from the Bronx is right to be outraged about the corporate welfare that threatens to price her constituents out of their own housing market,” she wrote Wednesday. 
Amazon announced Monday it had chosen Long Island City, Queens — where protesters gathered Wednesday to denounce the deal — and Arlington, Va., as the sites for a new split headquarters.  Ocasio-Cortez had said on Twitter that the people she represents have expressed “outrage” over the tax breaks, while arguing the cash could also go for student loan forgiveness.

Even the moniker "HQ2" is considered a sham, bait-and-switch, a PR stunt: Amazon never really intended to make such massive investment as the name implied, they just wanted to open a branch officeOne pundit even predicted back in January that Amazon would pick more than one winner.  Moreover, numerous cities are understood to have shared proprietary data about their areas and plans, in addition to offering tax incentives.  “A key concept for understanding how Amazon operates is leverage.  By running the search as a nationwide competition and receiving proposals from hundreds of cities, Amazon now has a database of information that gives it a further competitive advantage over rivals, as it’ll use this research to inform future expansion, and Amazon extracted the best deal through exercising its bargaining power over cities.” says Lina Khan of the Columbia Law School.

Why the outrage?  Because Amazon is set to reinforce economic system that is increasing inequality, monopoly power, and political polarization in one fell swoop.  The company could have easily chosen mid-sized urban areas with dynamic tech sectors, like say Pittsburgh, Raleigh, or Indianapolis.  Matt Yglesias of Vox explains further:
...while locating large pools of high-salary white collar positions in the New York and DC metro areas makes sense for Amazon, it doesn’t actually make that much sense for either greater New York City or greater Washington. Amazon’s presence will tend to exacerbate those cities’ crises of housing affordability and overburdened transportation infrastructure. And it makes no sense at all for the USA, which urgently needs more economic opportunity in dozens of other metro areas that have a different set of problems.  America needs to find a way to do better than this. Being the home to a very large share of the world’s most dynamic high tech companies is an incredible source of national strength, but in practical terms it does not benefit most Americans. With better policy it could.

Don't forget that the decision is very often not-so-subtly influenced by where the boss has a swanky new home and likes to spend time in.

Bezos' DC-area mansion

Monday, November 19, 2018

REMINDER: Cambridge Analytica sucked

Throughout 2018 people have been exercised at Facebook/Mark Zuckerberg over Cambridge Analytica (CA) and the leaks of 80+ million user data.  But we need to separate the facts vs the fiction. 

Fact is if you dig deeper, CA actually kinda stinks.  Ken Vogel of Politico, below, has been reporting on the psycho-graphic firm since the 2016 election cycle:



Even the guy in charge of CA says it's worthless.  From Julia Carrie-Wong of the Guardian:
“People may feel angry and violated if they think their data was used in some kind of mind-control project,” Aleksandr Kogan, the now notorious Cambridge University psychologist whose app collected data on up to 87 million Facebook users, said during a US Senate hearing. “This is science fiction. The data is entirely ineffective.” 
“If the goal of Cambridge Analtyica was to show personalized advertisements on Facebook, then what they did was stupid,” Kogan said, arguing that it is much more effective for any advertiser to use Facebook’s own advertising targeting tools. 
Kogan’s dismissal of psychometrics’ predictive value is certain to irk his former colleagues at Cambridge University’s Psychometrics Centre. Researchers with the renowned program published a widely cited study showing that Facebook likes could be used to predict a wide array of personality traits.


Facebook recently provided a tool to let you download *all* of your FB data.  So I tried it.  It came out to about 5MB, which seems rather small considering I've been active on FB since when it was "thefacebook.com".  And as I expected, my data is not all that interesting -- mostly poorly written status updates and links to dumb articles.

Even with the new evidence (reported by journalist extraordinaire Jane Meyer of the New Yorker) that CA was involved in the UK campaign for Brexit, doesn't really change the reality that it's overhyped and terrible at what it does.  In a nutshell, CA is just a well-funded troll farm, boosted by right-wing donor Robert Mercer and crazy/ambitious Steve Bannon, albeit one with lofty global aspirations.

Cryptos, explained by behavioral psychology


Did somebody mention Bitcoin is at < $5,000 now?

I'm sure this has something to do with the constant infighting within the crypto community.  And there's the little problem of criminal market manipulation ....

So yeah, dump your Bitcoins and go buy Iraqi dinars....

Sunday, November 18, 2018

"Fartgate" UK controvery eclipses Brexit in the parliament

(in Gerald Butler voice) Madness? This isn't madness.  THIS IS i give up.
From the article, I shit you not (pun very much intended):

Two pro dart players have accused each other of farting on stage during a match in England this week — casting a cloud of controversy over the heralded tournament.
“It’ll take me two nights to lose this smell from my nose,” Dutch player Wesley Harms fumed after getting blown away 10-2 by Scotland’s Gary Anderson at the Grand Slam of Darts in Wolverhampton.
Harms chalked up his foul play to a “fragrant smell” — which he deduced came from the Scotsman’s bowels.
But Anderson — who has admitted to passing gas during matches in the past — insisted he was innocent of this olfactory offense, the Guardian reported.
“If the boy thinks I’ve farted, he’s 1,010 percent wrong,” said Anderson, who’s ranked the world’s No. 4 dart player, and moved on to the quarterfinals. “I swear on my children’s lives that it was not my fault. I had a bad stomach once on stage before and admitted it. So I’m not going to lie about farting on stage.”
He continued: “Usually if I fart on stage, I s—t myself, I’ve told you that before,” the Express UK reported.

Friday, November 16, 2018

Debunking Tribalism in US Politics

Tribalism in a nutshell

Adam Serwer in the Atlantic provides a proper coda for the 2018 midterm elections:
...A large number of Republican candidates, led by the president, ran racist or bigoted campaigns against their opponents. But those opponents cannot be said to belong to a “tribe.” No common ethnic or religious ties bind [Heidi] Heitkamp, [Amar] Campa-Najjar, or the constituencies that elected them. It was their Republican opponents who turned to “tribalism,” painting them as scary or dangerous, and working to disenfranchise their supporters. 
The urgency of the Republican strategy stems in part from the recognition that the GOP agenda—slashing the social safety net and reducing taxes on the wealthy—is deeply unpopular. Progressive ballot initiatives, including the expansion of Medicaid, anti-gerrymandering measures, and the restoration of voting rights for formerly incarcerated people, succeeded even in red states. If Republicans ran on their policy agenda alone, they would be at a disadvantage. So they have turned to a destructive politics of white identity, one that seeks a path to power by deliberately dividing the country along racial and sectarian lines. They portray the nation as the birthright of white, heterosexual Christians, and label the growing population of those who don’t fit that mold or reject that moral framework as dangerous usurpers. 
The Democratic Party, reliant as it is on a diverse coalition of voters, cannot afford to engage in this kind of politics. [...] Democratic candidates did not attack their white male opponents as dangerous because four white men carried out deadly acts of right-wing terrorism in the two weeks prior to the election. Democratic candidates for statewide office did not appeal to voters in blue states by trashing other parts of the country considered to be conservative. [...] 
In the Trump era, America finds itself with two political parties: one that’s growing more reliant on the nation’s diversity, and one that sees its path to power in stoking fear and rage toward those who are different. America doesn’t have a “tribalism” problem. It has a racism problem. And the parties are not equally responsible.
One man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter

So when policy goals are incoherent/unpopular and politicians would rather avoid talking about them, it will lead to fear-mongering and identity politicsToxic tribalism is the unfortunate end.  It's always been this way.  Even the Simpsons get it.

The same framework is in play in today's Middle East, Latin America, and eastern Europe, perhaps other places too.

So let's take a lesson from ancient Jewish history:

Thursday, November 08, 2018

Surefire Intelligence is the best story of 2018

So a 20-something year old troll Jacob Wohl attempts to smear Special Counsel (and former FBI director) Robert Mueller, who promptly reports the case to the FBI.  The smear campaign was supposedly a result of extensive investigation by a private Israeli intelligence firm.

 Turns out, it doesn't really take the federal government to solve the case.  It just takes, I don't know, a few minutes of web searches by Aric Toler, a writer for the open investigation community Bellingcat.  Toler takes maybe 15 minutes off his work on Russia, quickly revealing evidence of Wohl's ties to the so-called "Surefire Intelligence" and right-wing conspiracy-pushing websites. Wohl seemed to have tried to create a facade of credibility for his private intelligence firm, but it quickly falls apart with a little scrutiny.

Check out the Bellingcat article above, or take a quick look below, it's really quite something....



Thursday, November 01, 2018

History of Bigotry


Another day, another mass shooting/hate crime.

Just thinking about Nazi Germany before the kristallnacht, it was probably a lot like the US today.

...

Happy Halloween all.